As the forecasting season kicks into high gear, organizations around the globe dive into predictions to strategize for the year ahead. Yet, while conventional predictions dominate discussions, a counter-narrative is emerging—anti-predictions. These contrarian viewpoints explore what won’t happen in the coming year, offering a fresh lens to challenge assumptions and refine strategies. Drawing on industry insights and Forrester’s latest anti-predictions, here’s a deep dive into what’s unlikely to unfold in 2025 and why it matters.
While AI-powered PCs have captured headlines at major tech conferences, 2025 won’t mark their enterprise or consumer breakthrough.
Why?
The technology remains largely tailored to niche user groups. Creative professionals, designers, and data scientists working within AI-intensive ecosystems are the primary beneficiaries. Enterprises still lag in upgrading PC fleets, with only 39% of decision-makers increasing their refresh rates, according to Forrester’s Digital Workplace and Employee Technology Survey. Among those, less than half are driven by the promise of AI capabilities.
On the consumer front, the adoption narrative isn’t much brighter. Forrester’s Consumer Pulse Survey reveals that only 7% of US online adults plan to buy an AI PC, while 67% feel they don’t use AI enough to justify the expense.
What This Means:
While adoption won’t soar in 2025, tech leaders should still pilot AI PCs for specialized roles and future-proof their operations. By 2027, advancements in AI applications and broader hardware compatibility could drive widespread utility across enterprises and consumers alike.
Despite the ongoing expansion of AI applications, vendor consolidation in the AI space is unlikely in 2025. Here’s why:
The Market Dynamics:
Relentless Innovation: Startups continue to disrupt the space, and specialized vendors are flourishing to meet sector-specific demands in healthcare, finance, and banking.
Low Barriers to Entry: Open-source tools like PyTorch, TensorFlow, and platforms like Hugging Face empower newcomers to build niche solutions without massive upfront investments.
Cloud Ecosystem Expansion: Giants like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud continue to lower entry barriers, fostering innovation and expanding the ecosystem rather than consolidating it.
What This Means:
Organizations should expect an increasingly diverse vendor landscape, offering tailored solutions but requiring a more nuanced approach to vendor selection and integration. Enterprises should focus on scaling solutions strategically, prioritizing interoperability and flexibility.
Ad-supported streaming tiers are rapidly gaining traction, but they won’t cause a seismic shift in consumer behaviors like upgrades or cancellations.
The Evidence:
Ad-Tier Growth: Platforms like Netflix have seen over 50% of new subscribers opt for ad-supported plans.
Price Sensitivity: Rising subscription prices drive more users to ad-supported tiers rather than pushing them away entirely.
Low Churn Rates: Only 7% of US consumers cited ads as a reason for canceling a service in 2024.
What This Means:
Streaming platforms should double down on ad-supported models, refining their advertising strategies to balance viewer experience with revenue generation. This tier will continue to grow as an essential pillar of the streaming ecosystem.
A. Generative AI Won’t Replace Human-Led Strategies (Yet)
Generative AI is revolutionizing workflows, but 2025 won’t be the year it replaces human-led decision-making. Instead, it will augment expertise:
Enterprise Use: Leaders will continue experimenting with AI-driven efficiencies in content generation, data analysis, and customer support but will maintain human oversight for critical decisions.
Challenges Ahead: Ethical concerns, regulatory oversight, and data quality issues will limit full automation.
B. Quantum Computing Won’t Reach Commercial Viability
Despite breakthroughs, quantum computing won’t achieve mainstream commercial application in 2025. The technology remains in its nascent stages, with companies focusing on proof-of-concept projects rather than scaling solutions. However, those investing early may gain a strategic advantage as the technology matures over the next decade.
C. Climate Tech Adoption Won’t Be Universal
While climate tech solutions are advancing rapidly, not all industries will embrace them uniformly in 2025.
Barriers: High initial costs, fragmented regulations, and lack of awareness will slow adoption in sectors like manufacturing and construction.
Opportunities: Industries with clear ROI from sustainability initiatives—such as energy and transportation—will drive early adoption.
1. Monitor the Signals
Organizations must differentiate between short-term fads and long-term trends, ensuring investments align with enduring market shifts.
2. Balance Experimentation and Execution
Pilot emerging technologies like AI PCs, generative AI, and quantum computing strategically, focusing on scalable use cases that address real business pain points.
3. Build Agility
Prepare for disruptions by diversifying supply chains, enhancing vendor partnerships, and maintaining flexibility in technology adoption.
While bold predictions dominate strategic planning discussions, anti-predictions offer a valuable counterbalance. By identifying what’s unlikely to happen, enterprises can better allocate resources, avoid overhyped distractions, and focus on transformative opportunities.
2025 may not bring AI PCs to every desk, a consolidated AI vendor landscape, or seismic shifts in streaming habits. But by understanding what won’t happen, organizations can chart a clearer, more confident course through the complexities of the year ahead.
